Saturday, September 10, 2022

Why India can't trust the US to be fair

When it comes to Pakistan, US government assessments aren't worth the paper they're printed on, toilet paper shortages notwithstanding. 

Thread on Twitter by Shaunak Agarkhedkar.

Between 1983 and 1989, the US government sold 40 F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. At first glance, that might not seem like a lot.

In order to get Congress to approve these sales, Reagan's Defence Department assured them that these aircraft could not be used to drop nuclear bombs.

After that initial sale, Congress passed what's known as the Pressler Amendment. This required the US President to certify to Congress that Pakistan didn't possess nuclear weapons. Reagan was delighted to lie to them, and issued annual certifications.

After George Bush became president, an intelligence analyst named Richard Barlow was commissioned by Dick Cheney to write an assessment on Pakistan.

Barlow, who had worked in arms control and was familiar with Pakistan's shenanigans, reached out to the DIA for a technical assessment of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. He asked them to focus on the F-16 aircraft.

The DIA's and Barlow's conclusions in 1989 were stark: the Pakistanis had modified their F-16s to carry & drop nuclear bombs.

Not only had Pakistan done this, but they had also used components supplied by the US government to do it.

At the time when Barlow's assessment was circulated in Washington, the Defence Department was getting ready to sell 60 more F-16s to Pakistan.

Soon, Barlow found that information he needed for further analysis had gone missing.

Right about this time, German Intelligence arrived at the same conclusion as the DIA about Pakistan's F-16s.

Der Spiegel carried a report on this on 24 July 1989, noting that Pakistan had even tested the modified F-16s in wind tunnels.
Barlow took this information to his boss, Gerald Brubaker. For his efforts, Barlow was attacked by officers within the Pentagon. 

They accused him of sabotaging the F-16 deal and ordered him to stop all investigations.

Eight days later, the public was informed about the new F-16 deal. When questioned in Congress about the possibility of these aircraft being used for delivery of nuclear weapons, US officials lied through their teeth.

Barlow was appalled and offered to brief these officials about how Pakistan had already done what they claimed couldn't happen. Less than a week later, Brubaker fired Barlow from his job.

The sale went through but ran into trouble a year later with the Pressler Amendment when Bush refused to issue a certification to Congress. 

Today, Pakistan has 75 F-16s in its inventory. A significant number of those are much more modern than those of 1980s vintage.

Not only did F-16s alter the balance of power in the region, but the Pakistanis also have modified those very aircraft to deliver nuclear weapons with support from elements within the US government. 

Richard Barlow paid dearly for speaking the truth about Pakistan. 

His career was wrecked by his own superiors. 

Barlow managed to get by with contractual work for years but was also unemployed for more than a decade.

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