Can Honest Officers Survive Bollywood Power?

Libtards celebrating bail for Aryan Khan... and case is now being diverted on NCB officer who handled the case... 

To understand the power of bollywood mafia... a small forgotten incident to refresh your memory..

The price one have to pay for being honest in this country. 

Here is the story of a young constable ..

Ravindra Patil, a young boy from Satara district joined the Mumbai Police as a constable and later trained as a commando to join the Special Operations Squad (SOS) which has a primary duty of guarding VIPs. He was later assigned as Salman Khan’s unarmed body guard after the actor complained to Mumbai Police about threats from the underworld.

 On the night of the incident, Salman Khan came out of Rain Bar at 2.15 am and they went to JW Marriott, where he was made to wait outside again. Patil then warned Salman to drive slowly when Salman was allegedly driving at a speed of 90-100 km/hr. Salman didn’t pay any heed to Patil.

September 28, 2002, Salman's white-colour Toyata Land Cruiser crashes into American Express Bakery at Hill Road at Bandra killing one person and injuring four others.

Immediately after the incident, Salman vanished from the spot, while Patil rushed to the Bandra police station, for the first information report (FIR). In his statement, he said that Salman Khan was under the influence of Alcohol and he (Salman) was behind the wheel at the time of the incident.

 Being a ‘prime witness’ in a high-profile case, Patil was removed from his duties as an SOS commando. People close to him maintained that Patil was under increasing pressure to retract his statement given to the police. Even though it was never revealed who was pressurising him, it was clear that tremendous pressure was being put on Patil – he was physically and mentally crumbling.

 A low-rung constable in the mighty Mumbai Police, he was tactfully isolated by his own department. He started abstaining from duty and would spend time away from Mumbai. During the trial, the only solid evidence that the police had, was Patil’s eye-witness account. There were a total of 27 witnesses in the case, but Patil was the prime witness who could turn the case around.

 In 2006, Patil went missing, his family lodged a missing report at the local police station. Rumours started doing rounds that Patil was being pressurised to stay away from the trial. He did not show up for 5 court hearings. Based on that, the court issued a warrant against Patil and ordered the police to arrest him.

 Crime Branch, found in a hotel in Mahabaleshwar, promptly arrested him and he was sent to jail. The trained commando ended up in a dingy cell of Arthur Road jail with serious criminals. He did not get any witness protection. He was harassed in the jail.After being released from jail, Patil again went missing. No one, including his family, knew where he was. There a re reports that he had gone to his mother’s place in Dhule district. In the interim period, he was dismissed from the police department. This meant that his salary was stopped and he was left without any job. He even got divorced.

 In September 2007, months after he had gone missing, Patil was found in the Sewri TB hospital. Such was his physical condition that at first no one recognised him nor did anyone know that he was the main witness in the Salman Khan hit-and-run case. He was reduced to a pile of bones and weighed a mere 30 kg. He was diagnosed with a deadly type of TB with little hope of survival. According to the hospital staff, Patil had reached the hospital in a pitiable condition and was unable to move or even speak. Patil had reportedly told the doctors that he was begging on the streets of Mumbai and had managed to collect Rs 50 to hire a cab to come to the hospital. He died on October 4, 2007.

Two days before his death, Patil said - "I stood by my statement till the end, but my department did not stand by me. I want my job back, I want to survive. I want to meet the police commissioner once."

Patil's sordid tale exposes the state of affairs in our country. It's shocking to find that none other than his own department deserted him for no fault of his. He paid the biggest price for speaking the truth and sticking to it. Few possess the courage that Ravindra did and he was punished for it. Salman Khan may or may not be responsible for this end of his but the system definitely is. The system which promises to protect us but ironically could not protect its own.

Real purpose of attacking Hindu festivals

Here is an explanation of why festivals are targeted by the woke community. You can read this thread on Twitter here by curiosweety. 

McDonald’s marketing team uses a behavioural study report to build its marketing strategy. The report says that key behaviours are formed from the age of 3-10. The place and activities which kids enjoy at this stage will form their behavioural pattern in youth.

This kid when grown up is more likely to go back to these activities and places in nostalgia and in turn take their kids for it. So kids associating a happy experience with something is crucial to capture next gen market share. Guess who else uses the same approach? Xtianity!

McDonald used multigenerational studies to arrive at its strategy. Hence happy meal, the clown mascot, the toy with happy meal, discounted birthday celebrations. At one time they offered accompanying kid free meal and hosted school kids for free or negligible amount.

Association of Christmas with happy times, holidays from school, loads of gifts, cakes and cookies, party/celebrations, Santa etc is the same experience that Xtianity aims to capture the kids mind at a tender age. With most schools (Convents & Public alike) perpetuating it.

These kids grow up to associate this time as special and fun. On the opposite hand - Diwali is made to be without fun by the same lobby (no crackers for kids) only pooja path & diyas, Holi is made colourless (again without fun for kid). Other festivals are sidelined too. 

Every festival usually has 2 parts - the spiritual /religious part for adults and to initiate kids whereas the fun part to make kids look forward to it (new clothes, crackers, color play, kanjake/ garba during Navratri, fun and fetes during Ganesh Chaturthi/Durga puja).

The ‘liberals’ can’t directly attack the spiritual part as adults would call out their hypocrisy, so in name of environment etc, they call out the fun part, knowing very well that without the fun part, the spiritual part won’t survive next generation. Its a well oiled assault.

The kids who don’t grow up having happy experiences of these festivals will soon abandon them. Already happening- so many choose to use these vacations to holiday abroad. Whereas the happy times with festivals like Xmas will create these happy associations for these kids.

I studied in a Christian school as against my closest cousins & I could see how jealous they’d feel seeing me dressed up for Christmas at school, coming back with Secret Santa gifts. Today all schools (even non-Xtians) celebrate Xmas more than other Indian festivals.

Some celebrate Easter and Halloween too. Am I against celebrations?? Noooo, really not. It’s good to celebrate & enjoy whatever maybe the reason but my only worry is are is as parents ensuring we make Diwali, Holi, Rakhis etc. equally fun for our kids? We don’t kill their joy.

We ensure, our kids grow up with really happy associations of Indian festivals? Loads of gifts, cracker , colour fun etc in these festivals for our kids to help them create these happy associations growing up? My parents did. Are we doing it enough to combat this onslaught?

When our kids visit churches as part of their school celebrations for Xmas, do we coax them to celebrate Indian festivals enough and say go for a temple visit, instead of tokenism in name of painting diyas. When they sing carols, are they allowed to sing aartis?

In my convent, when I was in 7th...one conscious parent got all parents together and a set of over 200 parents went to school administration to talk. The school did buckle (it was all polite conversation exerting on true secularism etc). After that we had Gayatri Mantra and Om Jai Jagdish as part of school assembly along with other prayers. They couldn’t take us to temple, but it meant the church visits were stopped (or made voluntary for older kids). 

Sometimes we don’t realise the subconscious aculturisation & it’s effects on next generation. 

2021 China's Evergrande crisis and its ripple effects

Here is a wonderful thread from Sahil that you can read on Twitter here. 

Evergrande is the train wreck that the financial world and media can’t help but watch. Here’s breakdown on the story:

The Evergrande Group is a Fortune 500 real-estate developer with headquarters in Shenzhen, Guangdong, China. It was founded by Hui Ka Yan in 1996 in Guangzhou. It's a big business: as recently as 2020, it had sales of >$100 billion and adjusted core profits of ~$5 billion. 

At its core, it's a homebuilder business.Its website states that it has over 1,300 projects across 280+ cities. But it has pushed the boundaries, making investments in EVs, an internet and media production company, a theme park, a soccer club, and a mineral water company.

As a developer, Evergrande had to contend with a highly cash-consumptive growth profile. Building a new project may take many months and requires a lot of cash outflows along the way. Cash collections (from buyers) come later, with the exception of smaller upfront deposits.

So how did Evergrande fund its impressive growth? Debt—it borrowed aggressively, even by real estate property development standards. It became the world's most heavily-indebted developer, with a debt load of over $100 billion and over $300 billion in liabilities.

As is pointed out in the brilliant thread below, there is a bit of a moral hazard problem that was created along the way. Evergrande was largely indifferent to pricing on the land it was purchasing, knowing that the risk would be passed off to banks financing the purchases.

The debt-fueled growth propelled Evergrande (and its now billionaire founder) into an elite class. It entered the Fortune 500 at #496 in 2016 and reached #122 by the latest ranking. But debt is a double-edged sword—and Evergrande was due to catch the other edge.

As its debt burden grew, so did the interest payments on that debt. This is (mostly) fine, so long as revenues and profits—with which you can make these payments—continue to grow. But if the growth or profitability slows (or government restricts borrowing!), it's...not fine. 

Imagine a metaphorical boa constrictor tightening its grip on its prey. You can try to borrow more to make your payments, but that only fuels the snake. Moreover, the knowledge of your precarious position increases risk and makes that borrowing more challenging and costly. 

In Evergrande's case, the snake tightened its grip in 2020. It had its first major liquidity scare—a potential inability to meet its liabilities—sending a letter to the local government warning that upcoming payments could cause a crisis with systemic financial sector risks.

As with most de-leveraging spirals, there is a technical side (inability to make payments) and a psychological side (the knowledge of instability impacting your market standing). The psychological is damning. Reports of the letter sent Evergrande’s stock and bonds tumbling.

The short-term crisis was avoided—an investor group didn't force a big repayment—but the long-term remained.Dornbusch's Law says that crises take longer to happen than you expect, but then happen faster than you ever could have imagined. This proved true for Evergrande...

To meet its ever growing obligations, Evergrande began tapping into "creative" financing strategies. It pushed employees to provide short-term loans to the company—which it called "high interest investments”—in order to ensure they received their year-end bonuses.

But the company quickly fell behind, missing payments earlier this month and leaving thousands of employees in a lurch. With over $7.4 billion of bond payments due in 2022, and large interest payments coming up as soon as this Thursday, the crisis appears to be accelerating.

To reiterate, the psychological side is just as impactful as the technical. It was recently reported that Evergrande was offering to sell properties at a deep discount—indicating a fire sale required to make its payments and sending further panic spiraling into the market.

Protests have broken out at Evergrande offices in China—with up to 1 million homebuyers left in a devastating limbo, having paid deposits upfront for homes that may never be built. The media narrative cycle of demise ramped up in earnest and further fueled the fire. 

Importantly, the Evergrande situation poses a systemic risk to the Chinese economy. With deep ties to financial institutions and working class consumers across China, a disorderly collapse would have far-reaching impacts (financially and emotionally). 

But China is caught in a very tough spot. Act quickly with a bailout and be viewed as condoning the financial excess that led to the problem. Fail to act and allow the collapse to ripple through the entire economy that is just recovering from COVID shocks of 2020/21.

The Evergrande situation will undoubtedly continue to play out in public in the days and weeks to come. For more on this story, check out the resources below: 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-13/what-is-china-evergrande-and-why-is-it-in-trouble-quicktake?sref=UGGkDWbK … 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-beijings-debt-clampdown-shook-the-foundation-of-a-real-estate-colossus-11631957400 …19/ 

EVERGRANDE WATCH — UPDATE: Evergrande issued a hazy statement on Wednesday, stating that the interest payment due Thursday on one Yuan-denominated bonds “has been resolved via negotiations off the clearing house.” No other specifics were offered.What does this mean? The clearing house is a centralized authority through which Chinese companies typically pay interest on their local currency-denominated bonds. Direct repayment—as is implied here—is generally only used in cases where the company is looking for a special payment arrangement. This effectively provides a company like Evergrande with a way to make a payment out of formula with the actual bond terms while avoiding technical default. The proverbial can has been kicked down the road…for now. 

EVERGRANDE UPDATE: Trading on Evergrande shares was halted pending an announcement of a transaction. Reports indicate that Chinese developer Hopson Development Holdings will acquire 51% of Evergrande’s property-services unit for ~$5.1 billion (~28% discount to market value). Evergrande had spun-off the property-services unit in December—raising ~$1.8 billion in that transaction. While providing some relief, Evergrande has another $260 million bond payment due today, and it remains unclear whether recent bond payments due have been paid in full. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire...

Fantasia Holdings Group—a Chinese luxury property developer—missed a $206 million bond payment and a private bond payment yesterday. Fitch downgraded Fantasia to “restricted default” after the misses.

👀 on the Chinese property sector.

2021 energy crisis explained using economics 101

Here is a wonderful thread from Sahil that you can read on Twitter here. 

China is facing a severe energy crisis that threatens to compound supply chain woes and derail the global recovery.Here’s a simple breakdown of the situation:

With Evergrande and supply chain disarray stealing the spotlight, a growing energy crisis has (mostly) flown under the radar. China is feeling the pain, but the contagion is poised to spread globally. 

This article provides a simple framework for understanding the key drivers:

What are the visible impacts of China's energy crisis? More than half of China's mainland provinces have been forced to limit electricity usage due to shortages. The largest industrial provinces are facing cuts just as they try to dig their way out of the supply chain woes.

Globally, widespread concerns over rising coal and natural gas prices (the latter of which deserves its own thread in the future) are causing a stir. Policymakers are expressing real angst over the ability of their countries to adequately heat homes as winter months approach. 

In attempting to understand the situation, it's important to understand that the economy is an interconnected web of activity. Nothing happens in a vacuum. This means that an energy crisis in China is not just about China—it has a complex set of causes and effects.

In this situation, China's crisis is primarily related to coal. While out of vogue, coal remains a key source of electric power globally.

The science for dummies: Coal is burned, the heat boils water and produces steam, which drives a turbine, which produces electricity.

To dissect the coal-driven crisis (and its ripple effects), we need a simple framework. Let's turn back to our Econ 101 classic: Supply & Demand. Supply is everything related to energy production. Demand is everything related to energy consumption. I'll cover each side:

First, demand. This is relatively straightforward: demand for coal (and the electricity it produces) is very high (and rising). The robust global recovery from COVID—and the resulting impact on goods manufactured in China—is one key driver.

Domestic residential coal-powered electricity demand is also up, with a hot summer and lower than normal hydroelectric production. This latter point is worth noting, as it's a supply constraint in one area (hydroelectric) creating a demand surge in another (coal electricity).

Next, supply.

This one is more complex, with several distinct—yet interconnected—dislocations. The main supply dislocations that I see here are: (1) Coal Shortages (2) Import Restrictions (3) Utility Price Fixing (4) CCP Emissions Targets

Let’s cover each:

Coal ShortagesGlobal coal supply has been constrained. Coal mines have faced COVID-related shutdowns. Further, concerns over the PR risk of opening new coal production have held back new entrants. Rising global coal prices haven't led to new supply entering the market.

Import Restrictions

While coal supply has been constrained, China has taken actions that have exacerbated the problem. They cut Australian imports—previously 10% of Chinese coal consumption—over a political spat. Similar story with Mongolia over anti-corruption crackdowns.

Utility Price Fixing

In China, utility companies face standard pricing set by the government. This means they cannot raise prices when their input costs spike (as they have). Utilities are often better off shutting production—which they have done—vs. producing at a loss.

CCP Emissions Targets

President Xi Jinping has made a public pledge to cut carbon emissions—with a goal to reach peak emissions by 2030. Positive for the environment, but the policy has led to provinces instituting curbs and blackouts for energy-intensive businesses.

So looking at all of this through my (admittedly) simplistic framework, here's what I see: On one end, a structural surge in demand. On the other end, a number of significant supply challenges and dislocations. Yet again, we have demand up and supply down.

The net impact: widespread energy shortages in China, sharp price increases, and continued production delays. For supply chains, this means continued woes. For consumers, this means rising prices. In our interconnected economy, nobody is insulated from this disruption.

I hope this simple breakdown helps you feel more well-informed about the coming energy crisis.

I highly recommend the below articles, which also supplied several of the charts: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-power-shortfalls-begin-to-ripple-around-the-world-11633101100 … 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/china-orders-top-energy-firms-to-secure-supplies-at-all-costs?sref=UGGkDWbK …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-09-28/global-energy-shortage-why-is-everyone-talking-about-a-power-crunch?

2021 global supply chain disarray using economics 101

Here is a wonderful thread from Sahil that you can read on Twitter here. 

By now, you’ve probably heard that global supply chains are in a state of disarray.

Here's a simple breakdown of what’s causing it:

There's a lot of talk right now about the global supply chain crisis.@Business published an article subtitled "Inside the Brutal Realities of Supply Chain Hell”—it's getting serious.

This thread provides my (very) simple framework for understanding the key drivers:

First off, what are the visible impacts of the crisis?

Product delays (good luck getting appliances before 2022), product shortages (see semiconductors), port buildups (fly over LA and you'll see), and rampant freight costs (sorry, retailer margins).

It's pretty bad.

Global supply chains are very complex. We live in a highly-interconnected world. A butterfly flaps its wings in Shenzhen and impacts when I receive my bike in New York. Ok, maybe not quite, but almost...So to understand the drivers of the crisis, we need a simple framework.

Let's break down what is happening using an Econ 101 classic: Supply and Demand.

Supply here refers to everything related to manufacturing, production, and transportation. Demand here refers to everything related to consumption. I'll walk through each side: 

First, demand. 

This one is pretty simple: it's through the roof. Consumers are flush and not afraid to spend. Further, lockdowns and restrictions have meant more spending on goods vs. services. So you have a ton of demand for goods--those goods need to come from somewhere!

Next, supply. 

This one is more nuanced.The major supply drivers I see here:(1) Factory shutdowns (2) Port shutdowns (3) Flight reductions (4) Container ship challenges

Hitting each one quickly:

COVID Factory Shutdowns

Factories—particularly in Asia—have had a tough time managing and containing outbreaks of Covid. This leads to delays and bottlenecks in production. If an upstream manufacturer is delayed, that impact cascades downstream and has an extensive impact.

COVID Port Shutdowns

Ports have experienced similar challenges—any have had to shut down or restrict labor to avoid outbreaks. If ports are closed, products can't flow smoothly through the supply chain. It's like creating a kink in a hose and watching pressure build.

Flight Reductions

It's news to most people, but about 50% of air cargo flies on passenger flights. It's a great revenue stream for passenger airlines. But with travel—especially international travel—reduced by COVID, there was a significant reduction in air cargo capacity.

Container Ship Challenges

The Ever Given clogged the Suez Canal in March, causing a backlog whose impact cascaded through global supply chains. There aren't enough large container ships to meet all of this demand and containers are in the wrong places at the wrong times. 

So looking at all of this through my simplistic framework, here's what I see: On one end, a structural surge in demand for goods. On the other end, a number of significant supply challenges and dislocations. Demand up, supply down.

The net impact: sharp shipping and production price increases, shortages, and massive delays. For consumers, this means rising prices, as these rising supply chain costs are passed through. Your holiday shopping may be a whole lot more expensive (and late) this year...

I hope this simple breakdown helps you feel more well-informed about what is happening with the global supply chain crisis.

Also, these articles are great:

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-christmas-king-gets-caught-up-in-shipping-chaos-11632475801 …

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cargo-delays-are-getting-worse-but-california-ports-still-rest-on-weekends-11632648602?st=yebv3p3pzoj1p06&reflink=article_email_share …

By the way, if you’re looking for Christmas presents that you can get at a reasonable price, I hear Evergrande has some really nice half-finished apartments on offer at a deep discount…

Looks like a lot of people are flocking to Evergrande offices to take advantage of this limited time opportunity!

Education standards in Kerala (lack thereof)

Marks Jehad, a thread on Twitter explaining the sorry state of education in Kerala. You can read it on Twitter here. 

1. Prof Rakesh Pandey says Kerala students are dominating DU because anyone can get 100% marks in Kerala Board. This is true. After II Class in Eng Hons from Hansraj, DU, I easily topped MA Eng in Kerala as Kerala standards were pathetic.

Kerala students are now dominating DU because anyone can get 100% marks in Kerala Board

Out of 206 students admitted under the unreserved category, more than 95% of them have studied from the Kerala state board

https://tfipost.com/2021/10/kerala-students-are-now-dominating-du-because-anyone-can-get-100-marks-in-kerala-board/

2. During PG, I partied 2 years, traveled, became a champion quizzer, never looked at the books, walked out of boring lectures and in the last month crammed 18 hours a day. Got First Class, topped college, topped uni in viva. Kerala syllabus was a joke.

3. At least in uni, there was a semblance of standards. In schools, Kerala Board is beyond pathetic. I studied ICSE. Anyone who studied it knows how tough it is. It's equal to British O Level. Compared to it, CBSE was a joke. Compared with CBSE, Kerala Board was a joke.

4. During holidays I used to visit my cousins in Kerala. Looking at their books I used to be filled with a mix of amusement and envy. My cousin's Class X books were like pamphlets compared with our big fat Physics textbook from Britain, AC Bagchi's Biology and 2 huge math books.

5. Plus, we had 2 English exams, 2 Hindi exams, a fat Economics book, separate History, separate Geography, separate Civics textbook, Chemistry. God knows what else. In contrast, my cousins were studying in Class X what we used to study in Class VI. No wonder they were so happy.

6. I remember thinking, it wasn't fair. Here I was struggling with so many subjects and books and my cousins' entire Class X subject was equal to what we had completed 4 years ago. In some subjects, Kerala Class X students were studying the ICSE equivalent of Class III.

7. If DU allows Kerala students to flood into campuses in Delhi, it would be totally unfair on students from the rest of India who have way higher standards. This could result in competitive marking with perhaps Bihar Board chasing Kerala to the bottom of the barrel.

8. The greater danger is communist, Harmful and Ricebag students from Kerala will inject toxic ideologies and jehad into DU's campuses. There will be frequent hartals and campus violence.

 

9. The truth is, there is absolutely no teaching in Kerala colleges due to frequent strikes by students unions. DU is set to follow suit if it admits Kerala students in large numbers.

10. At any rate, why are Kerala youth coming to DU? What happened to their wonderful, 100% literate state with Harvard-beating education? Or have they just realised they have turned Kerala into another Bengal - a post communist dystopian nightmare?

Ends

• • •

Indira Gandhi and plane Hijackings

1971 January 30 : An Indian Airlines plane on its way from Srinagar to Jammu was hijacked by Hashim Quereshi and Ashraf Quereshi of the JKLF, who took it to Lahore.

Prime Minister - Indira Gandhi. 

1981 November 25: Air India Flight 224, a Boeing 707 plane VT-DVB "Kamet" on its way from Rhodesia to Mumbai, with 65 passengers and 13 crew members, was hijacked when it landed for refuelling at Mahe, Seychelles.

Prime Minister- Indira Gandhi

1982 August 4: An Indian Airlines flight from Delhi to Amritsar was hijacked en-route by a militant with the help of a fake bomb.

Prime Minister - Indira Gandhi

1982 August 20: A lone militant, armed with a pistol and a hand grenade, hijacked a Boeing 737 on a scheduled flight from Jodhpur to New Delhi carrying 69 persons.

Prime Minister- Indira Gandhi

1984 July 5 : An Indian Airlines jet IC 405 carrying 254 passengers and a crew of ten on flight from Srinagar to New Delhi was hijacked and forced to land in Lahore, Pakistan.

Prime Minister - Indira Gandhi

1984 August 24: Seven young hijackers demanded an Indian Airlines jetliner IC 421, on a domestic flight from Delhi to Srinagar with 100 passengers on board, be flown to the United States. The plane was taken to Lahore, Karachi.

Prime Minister - Indira Gandhi

Hijacking a plane was CHILDS PLAY under her. Who on earth gave her the title IRON Lady?

It was the army which won the war without her knowledge in 1971. She like her father, Jawaharlal Nehru, was unduly sympathetic towards Pakistan hence she lost on the table a war that was won on the battlefield.