Busted : Rape Propaganda about India being unsafe for women

STRIPPING THE PROPAGANDA NAKED
- Exposing rape politics of India. By Sreevidya Balasubramaniam. You can follow her on Twitter here. 

The link to her tweet thread on Twitter is here. 

The propaganda industry in India have focused on 3 major narratives over the past 6 years.

1. Lynchistan
2. Fascist
3. Rapistan

First two failed. This thread analyses and exposes the third lie with facts.

A few years ago I was to meet a western woman who requested for an informal coffee meet instead.

After buying me a coffee, with compassion and empathy in her voice this woman said to me “I am sorry about the situation in India. I know being woman, you don’t feel safe anymore…”

Being obsessed with truth, I smiled at the opportunity to crush a vicious propaganda.

I said “thank you. save your condescension and try to keep yourself safe because women are 13 times less safe in your country than in mine”

Gave data & watched a sunset of colours on her face

All this happened post @narendramodi in 2014. Travel warnings were issued to travellers to India by many countries.

But how true is the news of rapes in India? Is it right to call our country Rapistan?

This thread challenges the threadbare propaganda.

First, Global comparison

As shown in the graph, India is way below in terms of rate per 100,000.

India's conviction rate of 30% is far ahead of many countries (NCRB).

US felony conviction is 5 out of 230 reported cases - that's 23%.

US reports only 23% of rape incidents (Rainn.org)

But the propagandists in India would want you to believe that women are less safe in India, where they are worshipped.

Women in India are 15 times safer than they are in US. Are 6 times safer than in Europe.

So, how did we get such a bad image?

That's the power of propaganda

The next propaganda is “women are not safe in Modi’s India”.

How true is that?

How can we analyse that?

1. A comparison of India pre and post 2014
2. Comparison of states with and without BJP
3. Analysis of rape rate per 100,000
4. Analysis of frequency of rapes.

Read on.

1. Comparison of Rape in India before and during Modi era

It’s crystal clear from the graph, that rapes soared under Congress. Relentless rise, running up to 2014.

The FIRST EVER drop happened after Modi took oath.

Spikes in line with global trend (smart phones main reason)

2. Rate of rape per 100,000 compared across – Congress and BJP regimes. Again, BJP fares far better than Congress.

Fact: population growth had receding trend over the period, but even during dropping rate, rape rates rose higher till 2014, and then fell during BJP regime.

3. The propagandists knew that absolute numbers and rate per 100,000 will not hold ground as truth seekers will rip them apart.

So, what did the communist mouthpieces and fake news portals find?

“A woman is raped every 15 mins in India” propaganda.

How fair is this cry?

The graph tells the story. When Congress took over in 2004, every 29 mins a woman was raped.

Congress ensured that 2 women were raped in the same time by 2014.

When Modi took over, every 14 minutes a woman was raped in India.

Shameless propagandists hid this from you.

Since 2014 this frequency is stalled to one rape in every 16 minutes.

This means that women are 2 more minutes safer under Modi than under Congress today.

Given the rate of Congress, if they had ruled, it’s possible that once in every 10 minutes a woman would be raped in India.

Thank God they didn’t.

Let’s now look at the trends of the country as well as key states.

Trend line is consistent with the world trend (coincides wider use of smart phones and social groups).

As a country, there is distinctive difference before and after 2014.

Will discuss 4 clusters – high number states, non-BJP states, two random clusters.

Cluster 1. High Number States - UP, MP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra.

BJP shows slow rising/declining trend across the cluster. UP drop notable. Congress and SP show steep rise everywhere except MP.

Cluster 2. Non-BJP ruled states – Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Odisha

Mixed trend with Kerala being the only state with steady rise despite changing regimes.

All show rising trend since 2018

Odisha/ TN did better than Kerala and WB under Communist and Congress rules.

Cluster 3. Random states - Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka and Gujarat

GJ and KN show slow rise during BJP and abnormal spikes post 2014. Congress drops rates in Chhattisgarh.

GJ and CG show downward trend since 2018.

Cluster 4. Random States – Assam, Bihar, Delhi, Haryana

Except Haryana, BJP trends show significant decline, and Congress showing significant rise. This is a spectacular graph.

Shows BJP’s impact.

Haryana - rise is slower than steep rise under Congress.

Delhi, Central police

In Summary,

• India is a safer country for women than most others

• BJP regime is safer for women than Congress

• BJP ruled states are safer for women than Congress

• Congress doubled the rape frequency in 10 years

• BJP is stalling the rate.

Every rape is a heinous crime. No woman or man should be subject to any abuse.

Every rapist is a criminal.

But even bigger criminals are those who rape the honour of the motherland.

Vande Mataram.

2021 energy crisis explained using economics 101

Here is a wonderful thread from Sahil that you can read on Twitter here. 

China is facing a severe energy crisis that threatens to compound supply chain woes and derail the global recovery.Here’s a simple breakdown of the situation:

With Evergrande and supply chain disarray stealing the spotlight, a growing energy crisis has (mostly) flown under the radar. China is feeling the pain, but the contagion is poised to spread globally. 

This article provides a simple framework for understanding the key drivers:

What are the visible impacts of China's energy crisis? More than half of China's mainland provinces have been forced to limit electricity usage due to shortages. The largest industrial provinces are facing cuts just as they try to dig their way out of the supply chain woes.

Globally, widespread concerns over rising coal and natural gas prices (the latter of which deserves its own thread in the future) are causing a stir. Policymakers are expressing real angst over the ability of their countries to adequately heat homes as winter months approach. 

In attempting to understand the situation, it's important to understand that the economy is an interconnected web of activity. Nothing happens in a vacuum. This means that an energy crisis in China is not just about China—it has a complex set of causes and effects.

In this situation, China's crisis is primarily related to coal. While out of vogue, coal remains a key source of electric power globally.

The science for dummies: Coal is burned, the heat boils water and produces steam, which drives a turbine, which produces electricity.

To dissect the coal-driven crisis (and its ripple effects), we need a simple framework. Let's turn back to our Econ 101 classic: Supply & Demand. Supply is everything related to energy production. Demand is everything related to energy consumption. I'll cover each side:

First, demand. This is relatively straightforward: demand for coal (and the electricity it produces) is very high (and rising). The robust global recovery from COVID—and the resulting impact on goods manufactured in China—is one key driver.

Domestic residential coal-powered electricity demand is also up, with a hot summer and lower than normal hydroelectric production. This latter point is worth noting, as it's a supply constraint in one area (hydroelectric) creating a demand surge in another (coal electricity).

Next, supply.

This one is more complex, with several distinct—yet interconnected—dislocations. The main supply dislocations that I see here are: (1) Coal Shortages (2) Import Restrictions (3) Utility Price Fixing (4) CCP Emissions Targets

Let’s cover each:

Coal ShortagesGlobal coal supply has been constrained. Coal mines have faced COVID-related shutdowns. Further, concerns over the PR risk of opening new coal production have held back new entrants. Rising global coal prices haven't led to new supply entering the market.

Import Restrictions

While coal supply has been constrained, China has taken actions that have exacerbated the problem. They cut Australian imports—previously 10% of Chinese coal consumption—over a political spat. Similar story with Mongolia over anti-corruption crackdowns.

Utility Price Fixing

In China, utility companies face standard pricing set by the government. This means they cannot raise prices when their input costs spike (as they have). Utilities are often better off shutting production—which they have done—vs. producing at a loss.

CCP Emissions Targets

President Xi Jinping has made a public pledge to cut carbon emissions—with a goal to reach peak emissions by 2030. Positive for the environment, but the policy has led to provinces instituting curbs and blackouts for energy-intensive businesses.

So looking at all of this through my (admittedly) simplistic framework, here's what I see: On one end, a structural surge in demand. On the other end, a number of significant supply challenges and dislocations. Yet again, we have demand up and supply down.

The net impact: widespread energy shortages in China, sharp price increases, and continued production delays. For supply chains, this means continued woes. For consumers, this means rising prices. In our interconnected economy, nobody is insulated from this disruption.

I hope this simple breakdown helps you feel more well-informed about the coming energy crisis.

I highly recommend the below articles, which also supplied several of the charts: 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-power-shortfalls-begin-to-ripple-around-the-world-11633101100 … 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/china-orders-top-energy-firms-to-secure-supplies-at-all-costs?sref=UGGkDWbK …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/storythreads/2021-09-28/global-energy-shortage-why-is-everyone-talking-about-a-power-crunch?

Where is the justice?

I usually stay away from politics - Mostly because I feel discussing it is a waste of time. However, sometimes, it just cannot be ignored and certain events just have to be discussed, the primary reason being that these events are used time and again to play hate-politics.

Came across this wonderful eye-opening article that is a textbook example of how sensitive topics should be handled - factually.

I warn you that it is long, however, I strongly urge every self-respecting Indian to read it fully and after reading to spread awareness about this. After all what is the point in simply reading stuff just to kill time!

______________
Riotous Reportage: Gujarat 2002
Sandhya Jain
18 April 2009

http://www.vijayvaani.com/FrmPublicDisplayArticle.aspx?id=521

The author is Editor, http://www.vijayvaani.com/
PS: Had posted the entire article here, but then it could be a copyright issue! So pls read the link instead!

Obama won - Now what?

It has been noted across the world and in the history books, that President-elect Barack Obama is the 1st Black president of the United States of America. But how united really is the US? As this history was made, there was another statistic dramatically on the rise and it is marked by a strong current of racism. There have been numerous death-threats by white supremacist to assassinate Obama!

It was announced on CNN after the election that the FBI had noted that the increase in number of death threats spiked each time the Republican GOP VP candidate Sarah Palin held a rally during the election campaign. These rallies frequently were associated with white people shouting slogans of "terrorist" and "kill him" - (see it here). The tone of her campaign was so vicious and negative, it even drew sharp criticism from the McCain camp and Palin was asked to tone down her rallies - which were nothing short of provoking racism. Even while this was happening at Palin rallies, many people were asking McCain in town hall meetings "How come Obama is ahead? How is this happening?". It is clear from these questions that no republican expected Obama to really win the election because of his colour. Right before election day, there were talks of a "surprise" election outcome from the McCain camp. These were based on hopes that on election day, white voters registered as Democrats would go and vote for McCain because they would be "uncomfortable" voting a black man for President. (After the election, it seems like the opposite happened as white people who would never openly admit voting for a black man went and cast their votes for Obama - because of his policies and his promise of change.) It is no doubt that this will severely anger white fanatics who still believe they are a superior race. It is not surprising to see an increase in KKK activity in recent times.

In a meeting between the US President Bush and President-elect Obama, Bush's choice of words for Obama was very interesting. Pay careful attention to the last para of this article, Do you think I am reading too much into things? Bush has held the most powerful chair in the world for 8 years and while his intelligence can be easily questioned, the man has to be adept at the art of conversation simply because he has to meet with leaders from a diverse background from across the globe. At that level, what you say, how you say it, even what don't you say and what words you use to convey a message is put under a microscope! I strongly suspect that Bush's choice of words when talking to Obama was a mere coincidence. I think Bush was sending a message on behalf of the Republicans.

However, Race is merely a weapon used by the wealthy to manipulate to masses for their personal benefit. There are other reasons for which I suspect that Obama could be assassinated. Obama is a natural leader. He has been elected on a campaign of "change". The economic situation is grim in the US. The US market is in a severe recession and a large number of people are losing their jobs. Those who still have jobs, do not know how long they can keep them. The sentiment of the common person in US is very bad. A vast majority are depressed and angry at the way the "leaders" have put the US in debt and have then gone ahead and bailed out Wall Street - with their hard earned money of Main street. The average person is also appalled at the way the CEOs have continued to mint money while the companies bled and employees were rendered jobless.

Even as he joins the office, Obama has his work cut out for him. He will have to turn things around and he will have to do that quickly. He will have to find a way to finance his promise of change by increasing taxes on the rich and giving a break to the common man. The problem is that change will not be easy to come by - the rich hold a lot of power. If change is ushered in too quick, it will be easy for the wealthy to manipulate the angry, unemployed masses, give them a racist cause and stick a pitch-fork in their hands.

What Obama needs to do is to tactfully please these two groups and bring them together. He needs to ensure that the United States are really united and that there is no division of people along racial, economic or along any line as America goes thru economic stagnation/recession and deflation. He needs to emerge as a leader that gives the people a sense of direction - a La John F. Kennedy! This is why Americans are sold on Obama - because they believe this man is a better leader than John McCain. Americans have done their part - Now the ball is in Obama's court. I hope he delivers on his election promises!

Comments and brickbats welcome - Just don't bring a pitch-fork please.